The Pulse
Ayre Think Tank Study Calculates $360 Billion Difference in Potential Economic Gains Across Commonwealth Countries
The Ayre Index estimates a $360 billion difference in potential economic gains between Commonwealth countries that meet its youth AI-readiness benchmark and those that do not. The study also points to gaps in internet use, electricity, digi
AI.info Team · Written with AI · fact-checked ·
A new study calculates a $360 billion difference in potential economic gains between the Commonwealth countries best prepared for artificial intelligence and those lagging behind. The Ayre Index was unveiled at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda. It examined conditions facing 732 million people aged 15 to 29 across all 56 member states.
Only 15 countries met the index’s benchmark for youth AI readiness. Under the study’s middle scenario, those countries could see a combined $389.2 billion increase in the level of their economies after 10 years. The other 41 countries could see a combined increase of $29.2 billion under the same scenario. The difference between those estimates is $360 billion, twice the $174 billion in development aid given by the world’s major donor countries last year.
Singapore topped the rankings
Singapore ranked first, followed by Malta, Australia, Britain and Canada. Malawi and Lesotho finished last. Of the Commonwealth’s 21 African members, only Mauritius, South Africa and Nigeria met the readiness benchmark.
The study’s findings point to a difference between the availability of infrastructure and its use. In Togo, 4G coverage reaches almost everyone, yet fewer than half of young people report using the internet. In Malawi, electricity reaches a fifth of the population. The examples show that network coverage or electricity access alone do not establish whether young people can use AI for work, education or other opportunities.
Nigeria illustrates another gap in the index’s findings. About 90% of young Nigerians surveyed expected to use AI for work or education within a year, but the country scored just 0.8 out of 10 on measures of conventional digital capability. The expectation reported by young people and the country’s score on those capability measures describe different aspects of readiness.
Meeting the benchmark does not ensure employment
South Africa met the readiness benchmark, but unemployment stood at 46.3% among its young labour force. The study’s figures therefore pair readiness with a continuing employment challenge in one of the countries that qualified.
Entrepreneur and philanthropist Calvin Ayre, founder of the think tank behind the index, said: “AI is going to change how we work, how we do business and how wealth is created. Nobody can afford to be complacent.” He said governments must give young people the skills and opportunities to succeed.
The study drew on 1,128 sources
The research drew on 1,128 sources, while also finding that comparable evidence about young people’s actual AI capabilities is limited in some countries. Its central warning is that access alone is insufficient. The report identifies skills, affordable connectivity, routes into employment and support for entrepreneurs as factors that will determine whether AI creates new businesses and better jobs or reinforces existing economic divides.