The Pulse
ASML Says Planned Tool Supply Will Fall Short Through 2028
ASML says its planned chipmaking-tool supply will not meet customer demand in 2027 or 2028 as AI investment lifts equipment forecasts. The company is exploring additional capacity for 2028 and raised its 2026 sales outlook to €44 billion to
AI.info Team · Written with AI ·
ASML says the chipmaking tools it currently plans to supply in 2027 and 2028 will not meet customer demand, as customers raise their equipment forecasts in response to AI-related investment. The Dutch company said on October 14 that it is examining ways to expand 2028 capacity beyond an increase it had already been considering. Some customers are discussing orders for 2029 and 2030, though ASML described those as expressions of interest, not confirmed orders.
Customer forecasts outrun planned capacity
ASML President and Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet linked the demand outlook chiefly to customers’ views of the scale and duration of investment tied to artificial intelligence. The company said its order-book momentum had increased quarter by quarter during 2026 and that customers continued to raise short- and medium-term equipment forecasts.
With such strong visibility and an order book momentum that continues to increase quarter on quarter this year, we now expect that our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers.
Christophe Fouquet, president and chief executive officer, ASML
The shortfall is a forecast, not a reported production gap: ASML says planned supply will fall short of expected demand, while it investigates ways to make more equipment. Its release does not quantify the size of the anticipated gap or specify how much extra capacity it could add.
What ASML had planned for 2027 and 2028
In July, ASML said it planned to raise 2027 capacity for low numerical aperture EUV systems by 30% from a 2026 level of around 65 systems. It also planned to increase 2027 capacity for DUV immersion systems by 30% from a 2026 level of around 130. For both categories, the company said it was investigating another 30% increase in 2028.
The October update says ASML is now looking at ways to take 2028 capacity beyond that previously communicated 30% increase. The company also pointed to its productivity-upgrade portfolio, which it says provides customers with significant wafer capacity. Those upgrades can help customers get more output from installed equipment, but ASML did not say they would eliminate the forecast supply shortfall.
Record quarterly sales lift the 2026 forecast
The warning came alongside a record third-quarter result. ASML reported €11.662 billion in net sales, compared with €9.326 billion in the second quarter, and net income of €4.960 billion, up from €2.918 billion. Gross margin rose from 54.0% to 57.5%, while sales of new lithography systems increased to 113 from 86 in the prior quarter.
ASML expects fourth-quarter sales of €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion, with gross margin around 57%. It now forecasts full-year 2026 sales of €44 billion to €45 billion and a gross margin around 56%; the previous forecast was €43 billion to €45 billion. The company said third-quarter service and field-option sales exceeded guidance, supported by demand for productivity upgrades.
Interest through 2030 is not yet an order
Fouquet said some customers are expressing interest in placing orders for 2029 and even 2030. That points to demand visibility extending beyond the near-term production plans, but the release does not say that those discussions have become bookings. ASML also cautioned that its outlook involves uncertainties, including customers’ ability to expand capacity and the company’s ability to adjust production and obtain parts and components.
For now, the company’s stated response is to investigate additional 2028 capacity while continuing to offer productivity upgrades. Its October forecast puts the mismatch on the record: planned tool supply for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully cover customer demand.